When Tamil Nadu goes to polls to elect a brand new authorities on 6 April, the elections will probably be held in an enormous vacuum. M Karunanidhi and J Jayalalithaa, who shared the chief minister’s publish between them for 32 of the final 52 years, at the moment are useless. If we embody the tenure of MG Ramachandran, whose political legacy was inherited by Jayalalithaa, the chief minister’s publish was between three individuals for 42 of the final 52 years.
Karunanidhi’s Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is now headed by his son MK Stalin. Stalin’s son Udayanidhi Stalin is among the many DMK candidates within the election. DMK was shaped out of partition on the query of nepotism. Its founder CN Annadurai accompanied his mentor EV Ramasamy “Periyar”, who led the Dravida Kazhagam, after Periyar determined to marry a younger lady, Manimmai, and named her as his political successor. Was born from the Justice Social gathering itself.
In the meantime, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), shaped by MGR after its exit from the DMK, is attempting to arrange its own residence. It’s attempting to keep up a definite identification with out diluting its alliance with India’s present main political hegemony, the Bharatiya Janata Social gathering (BJP).
Aside from these apparent adjustments, the 2021 elections may also be fascinating so far as the long-term political situation of Tamil Nadu is worried. An HT evaluation outlines at the least three fascinating tendencies which might be growing in state politics.
Elections have change into an in depth contest
AIADMK created historical past by retaining energy for the second consecutive time within the 2016 meeting elections. Since 1984, the political energy has been alternately between the DMK and the AIADMK. Nonetheless, the 2016 election was one of many closest – particularly when it comes to the common victory margin. Returns the center worth in a median distribution. By way of vote share, Tamil Nadu had a median victory margin of 6.6% within the 2016 election, the second lowest in Tamil Nadu since 1971, for which information is obtainable in a database maintained by the Trivedi Middle for Political Knowledge. (TCPD), Ashoka College. An extended-term take a look at the profitable margins additionally exhibits that they’ve declined within the post-1990 interval.
The 2 main Dravidian events obtained unprecedented help in 2016
Whereas Tamil Nadu politics has been dominated by Dravidian events, first the DMK after which its wing AIADMK, for many years, they’d not more than two-thirds vote share as of 2016. This modified within the 2016 elections, when their mixed vote share crossed 72%. The Congress was the main occasion within the then Madras State. It was in 1967 itself that the DMK gained the elections within the state, which was later renamed to Tamil Nadu. Since then the decline of the Congress has occurred in two phases. The primary main drop in its vote share got here with the AIADMK contesting its first election within the state in 1977, when the Congress was pushed to the third place. Congress’s vote share suffered one other main drop within the Nineteen Nineties, with members of the Congress and DMK forming their very own events such because the Tamil Manila Congress (Moopanar) and the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. Left events – Communist Social gathering of India (CPI) and Communist Social gathering of India (Marxist) or CPI (M), which didn’t see a decline in vote share with the entry of AIADMK within the elections, have additionally seen their vote share lower after formation. The BJP of many regional events within the state has been a marginal participant within the politics of the state until now. The destiny of all events besides DMK and AIADMK largely relies on the dearth of alliance with the 2 main events.
Alliance is a troublesome process for each DMK and AIADMK
The figures mentioned thus far clearly underscore the significance of alliances in Tamil Nadu. In a state the place the common victory margin is round 6% and the 2 main events collectively, even at their peak, haven’t crossed greater than three-fourths of the whole vote share, an alliance makes a variety of sense. Nonetheless, each the DMK and the AIADMK are extraordinarily cautious and reluctant about seat-sharing. Whereas the DMK has given solely 25 Meeting constituencies (ACs) to the Congress, its largest alliance associate, the AIADMK, has supplied solely 20 ACs to the BJP in these elections. A take a look at the final election information exhibits that there’s a reluctance on the a part of the 2 main events to provide extra ACs to their alliance companions. Each DMK and AIADMK carry out higher in opposition to the alliance companions of their opponents than in opposition to one another. In different phrases, ACs given to Alliance Companions have greater potential for loss.